Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained subdued on September 9, local time. Kpler data showed that approximately seven commodity-carrying vessels transited the strait that day, down from 12 the previous day and well below the recent average. As the conflict between the United States and Iran continues and the risk of attacks on commercial vessels increases, vessel transits, tanker shipping, insurance premiums, and transportation costs associated with the Strait of Hormuz continue to be affected.
Key Highlights
• Traffic remains low: Approximately seven commodity-carrying vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on September 9.
• Shipping risks increase: Attacks on commercial vessels and growing security risks are driving up war risk premiums and transportation costs.
• Trump’s statement: Trump said the war would end after the November midterm elections, but any recovery in shipping will depend on security conditions at sea.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Low at Approximately Seven Vessels
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined significantly in recent days. Kpler data showed that approximately seven commodity-carrying vessels transited the strait on September 9, compared with around 12 the previous day. Some vessels may be operating with their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) switched off, meaning publicly available data may understate actual traffic. These figures primarily cover commodity-carrying vessels and do not mean that all shipping through the strait has stopped.
Attacks on Commercial Vessels Drive Up Insurance and Transportation Costs
The decline in traffic comes amid rising security risks in the Gulf and surrounding waters of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States recently said it had destroyed several Iranian oil tankers, while Iran subsequently claimed that it had attacked 10 vessels in nearby waters, adding to the uncertainty facing commercial shipping.
ENOC also said insurance costs for certain cargoes had risen significantly. In extreme cases, war risk premiums could amount to a substantial percentage of the cargo value, potentially adding millions or even tens of millions of dollars to the cost of a single shipment.
Shipping Recovery Will Depend on the Conflict and Transit Security
U.S. President Donald Trump said on September 9 that the war between the United States and Iran would end after the U.S. midterm elections in November. However, his statement was a prediction rather than a confirmed ceasefire timetable.
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, when congressional seats and several governorships will be contested as part of the regular political cycle. The election date is not an official timetable for ending the conflict.
For imports and exports involving the Gulf, shippers and freight forwarders should focus on whether carriers continue to accept bookings for sailings in the region, whether vessels can transit the Strait of Hormuz safely and consistently, and how war risk premiums and additional transportation costs develop. If traffic remains low, longer vessel waiting times, voyage changes, and extended transit times could feed through into higher logistics costs.
Current traffic figures do not indicate that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been completely suspended. However, uncertainty over schedules and costs for cargo moving through the region has increased significantly.
Sources and Disclaimer
Sources include Reuters, Kpler, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), ENOC, and publicly available shipping information. This article is provided solely for reference by the international logistics and freight forwarding industry. Shipment and routing arrangements remain subject to the latest notices issued by the relevant authorities and carriers.
