Just as the truce agreement between Russia and Ukraine is about to open pre-negotiations in Saudi Arabia, global supply chain leaders have entered strategic reasoning mode.

① Can the driver shortage be saved? Ukrainian Transport Corps or "comeback"

John Manners-Bell, CEO of Ti, a transportation intelligence company, said, "Once a peace agreement is reached, tens of thousands of Ukrainian truck drivers stranded in Western Europe will accelerate their return home, and the driver shortage in Germany, Poland and other heavy industry countries is expected to receive a critical transfusion." The restart of cross-border railway arteries will also activate the lifeblood of international freight transport between China and Europe. But industry insiders warn that the "de-Europeanisation" clause of the secret US-Russia deal could significantly reduce the dividend.

② The food corridor unsealing detonates the butterfly effect of the transport chain

The Secretary General of the European Shippers Council, Godfred Smit, revealed the key variables: "If Western sanctions against Belarus and Russia are lifted, the choked Ukrainian grain exports will regain access to the Black Sea ports + Danube barges, and the 'Northern Silk Road' land transport corridor will be revived." But EU doubts about the credibility of the deal are shaking the foundations of the resurrection race.

③ Central European Airlines secret war now turn? Beware of the sweet trap

More explosively, European airlines, tortured for two years by the Russian airspace ban, may be broken - Manners-Bell predicts that the truce will lift the airspace blockade. But the bloody reality is in front of us: Chinese airlines have seized 40% of the routes between China and Europe by taking advantage of the political position, and even if Lufthansa and other Chinese routes are forced to suspend flights, they will face the brutal attack of "China made winter" on the demand side. More freight forwarders disclose: the current price of air freight in Central Europe is still 65% higher than before the war, and the recovery of capacity may trigger a new round of price bloody war.

When the US and Russia are exchanging chips under the negotiating table, the logistics companies that really know what they are doing are doing three things: monitoring the Suez Canal premium fluctuations, calculating the critical point of the restart of Ukrainian ports, and reassessing the risk weights of China-Europe freight services - after all, a grain of geopolitical sand falls on the shoulders of freight forwarders is a mountain of fingers.