Changes to vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect the global container shipping market. Iran recently reiterated its control over the strait, while vessel traffic remains well below normal levels. At the same time, rising bunker prices, port congestion, slower vessel speeds, and front-loaded shipments by U.S. importers have combined to push rates sharply higher on several major trade lanes. Iran and Oman announced new progress on a transit plan on August 15, adding another variable to the outlook for ocean freight rates in the second half of the year.

Key Highlights 

• U.S. East Coast rates near $9,000: The Shanghai–New York spot rate for a 40-foot container has risen to $8,706.

• U.S. West Coast rates exceed $6,000: The Shanghai–Los Angeles rate has reached $6,244.

• New progress in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on a safe transit plan.

• Normal traffic has not fully resumed: Uncertainty remains over the temporary arrangement and its implementation.

• Rates may diverge in the second half: Demand, effective capacity, and developments in the Middle East will continue to affect ocean freight rates.

Why Are U.S. East Coast Rates Approaching $9,000?

Drewry’s latest World Container Index (WCI), released on August 13, showed that the Shanghai–New York spot rate for a 40-foot container reached $8,706, up 10% week on week. The Shanghai–Los Angeles rate rose 6% to $6,244. Over the same period, the Shanghai–Genoa rate fell 8% to $5,080, while the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate declined 5% to $4,425. The overall WCI rose 1% to $4,339 per 40-foot container.

Rates have not risen across all major trade lanes, with the trans-Pacific market performing significantly more strongly. Front-loaded shipments by U.S. importers and resilient Chinese exports have supported cargo volumes, while blank sailings, slower vessel speeds, and port congestion have further reduced effective capacity. Together, these factors have pushed the Shanghai–New York rate rapidly toward $9,000.

When Will Normal Transit Through the Strait of Hormuz Resume?

On August 13, Iran again stated that the Strait of Hormuz was under its control and denied reports that normal vessel traffic had resumed. Vessel-tracking data shows that the number of vessels passing through the strait remains well below pre-conflict levels. A new development emerged on August 15, when Iran announced that it had reached an agreement with Oman on a transit plan for the Strait of Hormuz. The plan involves establishing a temporary shipping lane, with some commercial vessels to be routed through Iranian territorial waters. The temporary route is expected to be available for two to four months.

Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz therefore cannot be described simply as either closed or fully reopened. If the temporary shipping lane is implemented, transit conditions for some vessels could improve, but security, insurance, and service and vessel deployment plans will still need to be reassessed. The United States and Iran also remain divided over control of the strait and the conditions for restoring vessel traffic. Whether the temporary arrangement can be implemented consistently therefore remains to be seen.

How Long Can High Freight Rates Be Sustained?

If the temporary transit plan is implemented successfully, some vessels affected by the restrictions could gradually resume transit, potentially easing upward pressure on ocean freight rates. However, rates may not fall quickly while port congestion, high bunker prices, and supply chain disruptions have not fully eased. Trans-Pacific rates are continuing to rise, while rates on some Asia–Europe routes have already declined, indicating a clear divergence across the market.

Over the longer term, new vessel deliveries could also alter the supply-demand balance. Container ships ordered in previous years will be delivered over the next several years. As additional capacity increases in 2027 and 2028, the market could again face oversupply if older vessels are not retired quickly enough. Whether ocean freight rates continue to rise or gradually decline in the second half of 2026 will ultimately depend on the pace at which traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers, global cargo volumes, and changes in effective capacity.

Sources

Drewry, Reuters, and publicly available industry information. 

Disclaimer 

This article has been compiled from publicly available authoritative information and is provided solely for industry reference. Specific freight rates, route arrangements, and carrier policies will be subject to the latest announcements from the relevant carriers and authorities.