Whether commercial shipping can resume through the Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern for the global shipping market. On August 12, local time, U.S. President Donald Trump again stated that the United States had “total control” of the strait. Iran subsequently responded that the waterway remained closed and would not reopen unless the United States accepted its conditions. With the two sides maintaining opposing positions, considerable uncertainty remains over the resumption of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Highlights

• United States and Iran dispute the status of the strait: The United States claims to control the waterway, while Iran says it remains closed.

• Iran sets conditions for reopening: These include a comprehensive ceasefire, the lifting of the maritime blockade, the release of frozen assets, sanctions relief, and compensation for war losses.

• Technical preparations make progress: Iran and Oman previously agreed on the geographic coordinates of a new shipping route.

• Technical arrangements do not constitute reopening: Iran has stated that technical issues concerning the route are separate from the formal reopening of the strait.

• Pressure on energy markets continues: The IEA has warned that the prolonged closure is significantly affecting global oil supply and demand.

Political Conditions Continue to Prevent the Strait from Reopening

Although shipping through the Strait of Hormuz involves navigation routes, vessel traffic, and security management, the main obstacle is no longer limited to technical issues.

Iran previously set out several conditions for reopening the strait, including a comprehensive ceasefire, the lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets, sanctions relief, and compensation for war losses. From Iran’s perspective, reopening the strait must therefore proceed alongside a broader political settlement.

This has created the central disagreement between the two sides. The United States favors restoring navigation through the strait before addressing other issues, while Iran insists that its conditions must be met before reopening can be considered.

Agreement on Shipping Route Coordinates Does Not Mean Commercial Transit Has Resumed

Technical progress has been made toward restoring navigation. Iran and Oman previously reached an understanding on the geographic coordinates of a new shipping route, providing a technical basis for future vessel movements.

Iran has stressed, however, that the technical agreement does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened. In other words, “how vessels should transit” and “when vessels will be permitted to transit” are separate issues.

Even if navigation plans, coordinates, and related management arrangements are gradually finalized, commercial traffic cannot return to normal levels until the political and security conditions are resolved.

Competing Claims of Control Leave the Market Without a Clear Signal

On August 13, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said that the Strait of Hormuz was under Iran’s “complete control” and that no vessel could pass safely without permission.

The United States, meanwhile, continues to emphasize its ability to control the strait. The sharply different accounts of the waterway’s operational status make it difficult for the market to determine a reopening timeline based on statements from either side alone.

Some tankers are still attempting to maintain shipments, but measures such as switching off Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmissions and conducting ship-to-ship transfers cannot replace normal commercial navigation. Overall vessel traffic remains low and far below normal operating levels.

Prolonged Closure Puts the Global Energy Market Under Pressure

The impact of the continued closure has extended beyond the regional shipping market. In its August 12 Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency said that the conflict and continued closure of the strait were placing significant pressure on global oil supplies and rapidly depleting inventory buffers, increasing the urgency of restoring navigation.

For the international logistics industry, the key issues are whether the United States and Iran make further progress in political negotiations and whether the conditions set by Iran are addressed.

Until the United States and Iran reach an agreement on the relevant conditions, the restoration of normal commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will remain highly uncertain.

Sources

CCTV News, Xinhua News Agency, Reuters, the International Energy Agency, Bloomberg, Freightos, and other publicly available sources

Disclaimer

This article has been compiled from publicly available information and is intended solely for reference within the international logistics industry. For specific vessel and service arrangements, please refer to the latest notices issued by carriers, ports, and relevant authorities.