During a web conference held on Wednesday (November 19th), the CEO of the world’s fifthbiggest container carrier Hapag-Lloyd, Rolf Habben Jansen, highlighted two major uncertainties to watch in 2026.

The first question logistics expert asked during the call related to a potential surge in restocking activities, which could drive demand growth for container shipping.

“There will be a pretty big impact restocking.” Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO said.

He estimated the probability of this happening to be “well above 50%”, restocking set to boost container demand growth by more than 4% next year, compared to 4.7% growth year-to-date.

Reliable on the state of US inventories is hard to come by at the moment, owing to the recent government shutdown, adding to the uncertainty around the restocking outlook.

ill, Lars Jensen, CEO of shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, noted that a larger economic stability in the US next year could lead to a massive restocking.

The second major uncertainty facing the market is the potential re-utilization of the Suez Canal.

Jansen said that experts believe that the massive influx of vessels back the waterway could lead to severe congestion in Europe, the Mediterranean, and Asia.

While the Asia-Europe trade will be directly affected, other trade lanes heading to could also face congestion pressures.

He also expects a ripple effect that could impact services to the US East Coast should the canal be restored to operation.

Michael Ald, Executive Vice President for Sea Logistics at Kuehne Nagel, believes that the congestion could be the result of a bunching up of vessels, but aside crunch caused by a shortage of truck transport could also emerge.

Nonetheless, Aldwell expects that liner carriers will run the Suez Canal and the Cape Route in tandem there is clear evidence that it is safe to resume Red Sea sailings.

Jansen said that the probability of severe congestion in the Mediterranean and northern Europe is extremely high should carriers restore their regular routes.

But he noted that Hapag-Lloyd has no current plans to resume the Red Sea route, though the company already has in place playbook it would adopt should the decision be made to switch.

Lars Jensen said that the carriers might choose to resume the full use of the Suez Canal right after’s Lunar New Year next year.

The usually scheduled seasonal slowdowns during this season could provide a beneficial window to ease the congestion risk at the major gateways Northern Europe and North America.