The United States began implementing retaliatory tariffs and continued uncertainty around long-term trade policy has started to imports, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and logistics-intensive industry software provider Descartes Systems Group. The latest monthly forecast shows a peak in imports in with a projected decline in monthly imports for the remaining months of 2025.

"While retailers stocked up ahead of the tariff increase, the uncertainty around U.S. trade policy makes it impossible to plan for the long term, which is critical to future business success,” said NRF Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold “These tariffs and the supply chain disruptions are increasing costs, and, ultimately, will be passed on to U.S. consumers in the form of higher prices.”

According to NRF’s monthly Global Port Tracker, volume in August may be down about 1.7% year-over-year, with a projected total volume of .28 million TEU, down nearly 3.4% from 2.38 million TEU in July. The report noted that volume in July was 2% higher than June, making it the second busiest month on record behind only the all-time high in August as retailers imported goods ahead of the Aug. 30 implementation retaliatory tariffs and the Sept. 1 deadline for the China tariffs.

U.S. containerized port imports totaled 2.52 million TEU August, a 1.6% year-over-year increase, according to Descartes. However, the company noted that import volume was down nearly 4% yearover-year due to “rapidly changing trade policies.”

Apparel, footwear and aluminum were the categories with the largest year-over-year declines in imports according to the Descartes report, which also noted that imports of furniture, toys and electrical machinery also fell in August. The company warned, “Policy remains the largest source of.”

The import situation became even more uncertain following President Trump’s decision to double tariffs on India to a total of 50% at the end of August. addition, the original Sept. 1 deadline to reach a trade deal with China was postponed by 90 days to Nov. 10, but the deadline still looms imports.

Because the delay came as retailers were entering the busiest time of the year, NRF actually nudged its forecast up slightly from last month. NRF is the largest increase in imports during September, expecting 2.12 million TEU, up from the previously forecast 1.83 million TEU. However, NRF projecting the decline in imports to accelerate after entering the fourth quarter of 2025, with imports for November and December expected to stabilize at just over 1.7 millionU per month.

NRF is forecasting total imports for 2025 to be 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4% from2024. However, this would still be the fourth-highest year on record, behind only the peaks in 2019-20 and 224.

Retailers also released their first forecast for 2026, expecting imports of 1.8 million TEU in January. They’re expecting opening of the new year to start with 19% lower imports than what they saw in January 2025