The Chinese Spring Festival, the world’s largest population migration and production shutdown cycle, has a profound impact on cross-border logistics, especially sea shipping from China to the US. As the core mode of transportation for China-US trade, the shipping capacity, freight rates, timeliness, and operational procedures of China-US sea shipping fluctuate regularly with the Spring Festival cycle. Without advance prediction and scientific response, freight forwarders and shippers are highly likely to encounter problems such as shortage of shipping space, soaring costs, and cargo delays. This article explains the specific impacts of the Spring Festival on China-US sea shipping from three aspects: impact dimensions, core data, and response strategies, providing professional references for practitioners.

What are the core impacts of the Chinese Spring Festival on shipping from China to the US?

The impact of the Chinese Spring Festival on China-US sea shipping is not single-dimensional, but runs through the entire cycle of "pre-festival, during festival, and post-festival", covering four core links: capacity, freight rates, timeliness, and operation. The impacts on different links show obvious differentiated characteristics, requiring targeted responses from freight forwarders and shippers.

Pre-festival: Stocking wave superimposed on capacity contraction, dual pressure on freight rates and shipping space?

The 1-2 months before the Spring Festival (usually December to January of the next year) are the peak period of pre-festival stocking for China-US sea shipping, and also the stage with the tightest capacity and the largest freight rate fluctuations. The core reason is that most Chinese factories suspend production and take holidays 15-20 days before the Spring Festival. To avoid cargo backlog during the Spring Festival and delivery delays after the festival, shippers will focus on promoting production and shipment, forming a centralized stocking wave, which directly pushes up the freight demand of China-US sea shipping.

Freight forwarders need to note that the concentrated outbreak of demand in the pre-festival stocking wave will conflict with the capacity contraction of shipping companies. According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in April 2026, China's waterway freight volume reached 1.36 billion tons in January-February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, of which cross-border sea shipping accounted for more than 31%. The freight volume of China-US sea shipping increased by 12.8% year-on-year in January before the Spring Festival, but the capacity of trans-Pacific routes of shipping companies only increased by 4.8% during the same period, with an obvious capacity gap.

In terms of freight rates, the freight rates of China-US sea shipping will experience a periodic sharp rise before the festival. According to the latest review data of Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) in April 2026, the freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles reached 2,920 US dollars per 40-foot container in late January before the Spring Festival, up 40% from early December; the freight rate from Shanghai to New York reached 3,980 US dollars per 40-foot container, up 30% year-on-year, and the freight rates of some popular shipping companies increased by more than 52%.

A common misunderstanding is that some shippers think booking 10-15 days in advance before the festival is enough, ignoring the tight shipping space caused by the stocking wave, resulting in no space available near the Spring Festival, and they can only choose high-priced temporary space or even have to postpone shipment; some freight forwarders blindly accept low-priced orders without locking shipping space with shipping companies in advance, and finally fail to perform due to insufficient shipping space, causing customer complaints and compensation disputes.

The recommended approach is that freight forwarders should sign Fixed Container Agreements (FCA) with shipping companies and first-tier freight forwarders two months before the Spring Festival (early December) to lock in shipping space and basic freight rates, and reserve 2-3 alternative shipping companies to avoid delays caused by insufficient capacity of a single shipping company; shippers should start stocking and booking 45 days in advance, stock in batches, give priority to transporting core goods, and reserve 10-15 days of buffer time to deal with unexpected situations such as production delays and customs inspections.

During the festival: Production shutdown + capacity adjustment, shipping market enters a "dormant period"?

During the Spring Festival holiday (usually 7-10 days), the China-US sea shipping market enters a phased "dormant period". The core impacts come from production shutdown, operational stagnation and capacity adjustment, which is also one of the stages with the lowest shipping efficiency throughout the year.

On the production side, most Chinese factories and warehouses are closed for holidays, and cargo production and stocking are completely stagnant, resulting in a sharp decline in the freight volume of China-US sea shipping. According to the updated data of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in April 2026, the average daily freight volume of China-US sea shipping during the Spring Festival holiday (around February 17, 2026) was only 31% of the pre-festival peak, among which the freight volume of Less than Container Load (LCL) goods dropped the most significantly, down 69% year-on-year.

On the capacity side, shipping companies will adjust the capacity of trans-Pacific routes according to the end of the pre-festival stocking wave, implement Blank Sailing plans, and reduce voyages to control costs. According to public industry information, during the Spring Festival 2026, the Gemini Alliance (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) canceled a total of 17 voyages on trans-Pacific routes (west and east US directions), among which the WC1, WC3 and WC4 routes to the west US were fully blank sailed in the 9th week, and multiple voyages on the US1 and US2 routes to the east US were also canceled or skipped, directly leading to a substantial reduction in the supply of shipping space for China-US sea shipping during the Spring Festival.

On the operation side, freight forwarders, customs brokers, trucking companies and other related institutions will also take holidays simultaneously. Operations such as trucking, customs declaration and loading are basically stagnant. Goods that have been booked cannot be loaded and declared normally, and can only wait for recovery after the festival. Freight forwarders need to note that although ports operate normally during the Spring Festival, loading and unloading efficiency drops significantly.

According to the latest data released by the official website of the Port of Los Angeles in April 2026, the container throughput of the Port of Los Angeles reached 831,000 TEUs in February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, of which the throughput of goods from China increased by 5.3% year-on-year, but the loading and unloading efficiency decreased by 42% compared with that before the festival, and some goods were detained at the port for 3-5 days longer.

The recommended approach is that freight forwarders should complete the loading, customs declaration and boarding of all booked goods 3-5 days before the Spring Festival to avoid cargo detention at the port; for goods that cannot be completed before the festival, communicate with shippers in advance to clarify the post-festival shipment time to avoid misunderstandings; at the same time, confirm the sailing schedule during the Spring Festival with shipping companies in advance, avoid blank sailing voyages, and reasonably plan the cargo shipment time.

Post-festival: Delayed resumption of work + replenishment wave, shipping market gradually recovers but risks still exist?

After the Spring Festival holiday (usually from late February to early March), the China-US sea shipping market gradually recovers, but problems such as delayed resumption of work, replenishment wave and lagging capacity recovery still affect shipping efficiency, forming unique challenges in the "post-festival recovery period".

On the resumption side, there are differences in the resumption time of Chinese factories, freight forwarders and logistics institutions. Most factories will gradually resume work 7-10 days after the Spring Festival, while freight forwarders and trucking companies resume work relatively early (3-5 days after the festival), resulting in a dislocation of "freight forwarders resume work, shippers do not resume work", lagging cargo stocking progress and low space utilization. According to the data of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in April 2026, in early March 2026, the space utilization rate of China-US sea shipping was only 67%, 23 percentage points lower than the pre-festival peak, mainly due to the delayed stocking of shippers.

In terms of replenishment wave, the inventory of goods in the US market is gradually consumed during the Spring Festival. After the festival, US retailers and importers will centrally initiate replenishment demand, promoting the rapid recovery of the freight volume of China-US sea shipping and forming a post-festival replenishment wave. According to the latest data released by UN Comtrade in April 2026, China's total export of goods to the US in March 2026 increased by 16.1% year-on-year, of which goods transported by sea accounted for 83%, an increase of 36% compared with February. The arrival of the replenishment wave directly led to a rapid rise in post-festival space demand.

On the capacity side, the capacity recovery of shipping companies lags behind the recovery of freight demand. Within 1-2 weeks after the festival, the supply of shipping space on trans-Pacific routes is still at a low level, and freight rates will rebound periodically. According to the latest data of Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) in April 2026, the freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles in mid-March increased by 19% compared with the end of February, reaching 2,620 US dollars per 40-foot container. Freight rates gradually fell back to normal levels until capacity fully recovered at the end of March.

A common misunderstanding is that some freight forwarders think capacity will recover quickly after the festival, ignoring the lagging stocking caused by delayed resumption of work, locking a large amount of space in advance, resulting in idle space and increased operating costs; some shippers are eager to replenish goods, blindly choose high-priced shipping space, and do not fully compare the capacity and freight rates of different shipping companies, resulting in excessive transportation costs.

The recommended approach is that freight forwarders should give priority to docking with resumed shippers after the festival, understand the stocking progress, reasonably lock in shipping space to avoid idle space; at the same time, closely follow the capacity recovery of shipping companies, adjust freight rate quotations in a timely manner to avoid losses caused by freight rate fluctuations; shippers should communicate with factories in advance, speed up the resumption of work and stocking, seize the window period of post-festival capacity recovery, choose cost-effective shipping space, and control transportation costs.

Core data support for shipping from China to the US during the Spring Festival

The impact of the Spring Festival on China-US sea shipping can be further quantified through authoritative data, helping freight forwarders and shippers predict market changes more accurately and formulate response strategies. All data are from designated authoritative sources to ensure timeliness and accuracy.

Freight volume data: Surge before the festival, sharp drop during the festival, recovery after the festival

According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in April 2026, China's port container throughput reached 59.23 million TEUs in January-February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, of which the container throughput of China-US sea shipping accounted for 28.5%, reaching 16.88 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; during the Spring Festival holiday week (February 15-February 21), the container throughput of China-US sea shipping was only 185,000 TEUs, down 69% from the pre-festival peak week. In the first week after the festival (February 22-February 28), the throughput rebounded to 428,000 TEUs, gradually returning to normal levels.

Freight rate data: Surge before the festival, fall during the festival, rebound after the festival

According to the latest data of Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) in April 2026, from January 20 to January 26 before the Spring Festival 2026, the freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles (west US route) was 2,920 US dollars per 40-foot container, and the freight rate from Shanghai to New York (east US route) was 3,980 US dollars per 40-foot container, up 40% and 30% respectively from early December; during the Spring Festival (February 15-February 21), freight rates fell slightly, with the west US route dropping to 2,480 US dollars per 40-foot container, and the east US route dropping to 3,620 US dollars per 40-foot container; in mid-March after the festival, with the arrival of the replenishment wave, freight rates rebounded to 2,620 US dollars per 40-foot container (west US) and 3,750 US dollars per 40-foot container (east US), and returned to normal levels of 2,380 US dollars per 40-foot container (west US) and 3,520 US dollars per 40-foot container (east US) at the end of March.

Port data: Stable throughput, reduced efficiency, extended detention time

According to the official website of the Port of Los Angeles in April 2026, the container throughput of the Port of Los Angeles reached 831,000 TEUs in February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, of which the imported heavy containers from China reached 439,000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, accounting for 52.8% of the total imported heavy containers in that month; during the Spring Festival (around February 17), the average cargo detention time at the Port of Los Angeles was 4.3 days, an increase of 1.9 days compared with that before the festival, mainly due to the concentrated arrival of goods from China and reduced loading and unloading efficiency.

Capacity data: Contraction during the festival, gradual recovery after the festival

According to public industry information, during the Spring Festival 2026, major global shipping companies canceled a total of 29 voyages on trans-Pacific routes (China to the US), including 17 on the west US route and 12 on the east US route, with a capacity contraction of 23%; capacity gradually recovered in early March after the festival, recovered to 86% of the pre-festival peak in mid-March, and fully returned to normal at the end of March. Among them, the Gemini Alliance had the fastest capacity recovery, and had recovered to more than 91% of the pre-festival peak in mid-March.

Practical guide for freight forwarders and shippers during the Spring Festival

Facing the multiple impacts of the Spring Festival on China-US sea shipping, freight forwarders and shippers need to formulate targeted response strategies based on the whole process of "pre-festival planning, during-festival control, and post-festival follow-up" to avoid risks, control costs, improve efficiency, and ensure smooth cargo transportation.

Pre-festival: Arrange in advance, lock resources and costs

Freight forwarders need to note that the core task before the festival is to lock shipping space and freight rates, optimize operational processes, and avoid delays caused by concentrated demand. The recommended approach is:

Shipping space locking: Sign Fixed Container Agreements (FCA) with shipping companies and first-tier freight forwarders two months before the Spring Festival (early December), clarify the quantity of shipping space, freight rates, and performance clauses, write "no container rejection, no vessel change, no port change" into the agreement to avoid shipping company breaches; at the same time, reserve 2-3 alternative shipping companies for the same route to deal with emergencies such as blank sailing and insufficient capacity of a single shipping company.

Freight rate control: Prioritize the "space-guaranteed price", spend 5-10% more on sea freight in exchange for "no container rejection, on-time sailing", and avoid the high risk of container rejection brought by low-priced shipping space; update freight rate quotations in a timely manner, clarify the pre-festival freight rate fluctuation rules to shippers, and avoid disputes caused by rising freight rates.

Operation optimization: Reserve trailers 3-5 days in advance, choose reliable fleets to avoid trailer queues and delays; review customs declaration materials in advance to ensure consistency between documents and goods, and reduce the probability of inspection; for sensitive goods and LCL goods, communicate with customs brokers in advance to prepare for inspection.

Shippers need to start stocking and booking 45 days in advance, reserve 10-15 days of buffer time to deal with production delays, customs inspections and other problems; stock in batches, give priority to transporting core goods, and avoid the failure of the entire shipment to be shipped due to the delay of a single goods; clarify the booking terms, confirm the latest time of shipment before the festival with freight forwarders, and avoid missing the shipment window.

During the festival: Conduct good control, reduce detention risks

Freight forwarders need to note that although operations are stagnant during the festival, they still need to do a good job in cargo control to avoid cargo detention at ports and additional costs. The recommended approach is:

Cargo tracking: For goods that have been shipped, closely follow the sailing schedule, and timely feedback the cargo location and estimated time of arrival (ETA) to shippers; for goods detained at ports, maintain communication with ports and customs brokers to ensure that operations are completed as soon as possible after the festival.

Customer communication: Inform shippers in advance of the operation stagnation time and capacity adjustment during the Spring Festival, clarify the post-festival resumption time and shipment plan to avoid misunderstandings; for goods that cannot be shipped on time, take the initiative to communicate solutions, and negotiate the post-festival shipment time and compensation plan.

Resource reserve: 3 days before resuming work after the festival, connect with trucking companies and customs brokers in advance, confirm the resumption situation, reserve trailers and customs declaration resources to prepare for post-festival cargo operations; synchronize with shipping companies to confirm the post-festival sailing schedule and avoid blank sailing voyages.

Post-festival: Rapid recovery, seize the replenishment window

Freight forwarders need to note that the core task after the festival is to connect with shippers’ stocking progress, optimize shipping space allocation, seize the opportunity of the replenishment wave, and control operating costs. The recommended approach is:

Shipping space allocation: Prioritize docking with resumed shippers, understand the stocking progress, reasonably allocate shipping space to avoid idle space; for shippers with concentrated replenishment demand, prioritize shipping space to improve customer satisfaction; closely follow freight rate fluctuations, adjust quotations in a timely manner, and avoid losses caused by freight rate rebounds.

Operation speed-up: Resume operations such as trucking, customs declaration, and loading immediately after the festival, optimize operational processes, and shorten the operation cycle; review customs declaration materials for replenishment goods in advance to ensure rapid customs declaration and loading; communicate with US destination port customs brokers in advance to prepare for customs clearance after cargo arrival and improve delivery efficiency.

Shippers need to speed up the factory resumption progress, shorten the stocking cycle, seize the window of capacity recovery after the festival, and replenish goods in a timely manner; compare quotations and shipping space resources of different freight forwarders, choose cost-effective transportation solutions, and control transportation costs; communicate with US importers in advance, confirm the receiving demand, and avoid cargo detention fees and storage fees caused by no one receiving goods after arrival.

Summary

As a cyclical node of China's manufacturing and logistics industries, the Chinese Spring Festival affects China-US sea shipping throughout the entire process of "pre-festival, during festival, and post-festival". The core manifestations are the pre-festival stocking wave pushing up demand, production shutdown during the festival leading to capacity contraction, and delayed resumption of work after the festival superimposed with the replenishment wave promoting market recovery. This impact is not a simple "negative impact". For freight forwarders and shippers who plan ahead and respond scientifically, they can seize the opportunities of pre-festival stocking and post-festival replenishment to control costs and improve efficiency.

Freight forwarders need to note that the core of responding to the impact of the Spring Festival on China-US sea shipping is "advance planning, flexible adjustment, risk prevention and control", avoid falling into common misunderstandings, and effectively avoid delays and cost increases by locking shipping space, optimizing operations, and strengthening communication; shippers need to cooperate with freight forwarders, stock up in advance, book space reasonably, and balance timeliness and cost. With the sustainable development of China-US trade and the continuous optimization of the global supply chain, the impact of the Spring Festival on China-US sea shipping will become clearer. Practitioners need to continue to pay attention to market changes, optimize response strategies in a timely manner, achieve stable operations in cyclical fluctuations, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the China-US sea shipping industry.