On the 7th, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest edition of the "Global Trade Outlook Statistics" report. The report pointed out that in the first half of 2025, the performance of global merchandise trade exceeded expectations, mainly benefiting from the rise demand for AI-related products, the surge in imports in North America before the tariff hike, and the active trade situation between emerging economies. Based on this situation, the WTO raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, a significant improvement from the 0.9% given in August. However due to insufficient global economic recovery momentum and US tariff policies, among other factors, the expected global merchandise trade growth in 2026 has been significantly revised down to 05%, a significant decrease from the 1.8% predicted in August.
The data in the report shows that in the first half of 2025 the volume of global merchandise trade increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the trade value increased by 6%. Among them, AI-related commodities, semiconductors, servers, and communication equipment, contributed greatly to the overall trade expansion, accounting for nearly half, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2%.
At a press conference on the day of the report's release, WTO Director-General Ivira said that despite strong headwinds from unilateral tariff and uncertainties in trade policies, global trade has shown a certain degree of resilience. This is attributed to the stable environment provided by the multilateral trading system and the appropriate measures taken members in response to tariff changes. In particular, the growth of South-South trade among emerging economies is very significant, with an increase of 8% year-on-year
The report also reminds that as global economic growth slows and new tariff policies begin to take effect, the momentum for trade growth is expected to weaken in 2026 The WTO predicts that the volume of global merchandise trade will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 0.5% in 202. The report also points out that inventory backlog issues, policy uncertainties, and the spread of trade restrictive measures are the main downward risk factors affecting trade growth.
Since there a close correlation between merchandise trade and production, the service trade will also be indirectly affected by tariff policies. The report predicts that the growth rate of global service exports will decrease from .8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and then further decline to 4.4% in 206.
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