The global container shipping market is bracing for turbulence as U.S.–China trade policy shifts stir chaos. According to Sea-Intelligence, Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day Tariff” announcement has triggered the buildup of an estimated 180,000–540,000 TEU backlog in China — a “cargo pool” waiting to ship.

The backlog, caused by a 30–40% drop in bookings, largely consists of goods already produced and stored in bonded warehouses or CFSs. If shipped en masse in May, demand could surge 16–48% on Transpacific routes. Even with a 5–6 week spread, volume could still spike 5–16%, not yet accounting for peak season pressures.

Data from Vizion confirms a post-tariff spike, with bookings from China to the U.S. jumping 277%, from an average of 5,709 TEU/day (May 5) to 21,530 TEU/day (May 14).

OceanX’s Ruben Huber notes the 90-day tariff reprieve has effectively “pulled forward” peak season demand. Despite this, capacity recovery lags: Asia–USWC capacity is still 5% below last year, expected to fall another 3% next week, and 10% by late June.

In contrast, Asia–USEC services show more flexibility, maintaining capacity year-on-year and projected to grow 30% by late June.

Sea-Intelligence warns that while more capacity may enter the market, it may not be enough to contain rate hikes. With shippers racing to beat the policy window, rates are forecast to climb steeply. Carriers may shift more capacity to the Pacific, potentially disrupting services on other export lanes like the Middle East and Europe.

The market now faces a volatile tug-of-war between politics and demand — with spot rates, capacity allocation, and trade flows all hanging in the balance.