Tariff Relief Agreement to Drive Up Freight Rates as Shippers Rush to Meet 90-Day Grace Period

In recent weeks, the rapid escalation of tariffs due to the trade war caused a sharp drop in cargo volume. Last month, China’s exports to the U.S. fell by 21%, and imports declined by nearly 14%. However, following negotiations between the two countries last weekend, tensions have eased significantly, now expected to trigger a rebound in both demand and prices. Shippers and analysts say that the start of the peak shipping season will further intensify this surge—especially as many vessels may not return from other trade lanes in time.

Container shipping lines have been struggling with sharply declining freight rates, with spot prices on some routes nearing break-even levels. According to the Drewry World Container Index, global container freight rates fell to just over $2,076 per 40-foot container last week—the lowest since December 2023.

Jefferies analysts believe spot rates will improve significantly due to two fundamental factors: a return of cargo volumes and the onset of the traditional peak season (typically beginning in July). With tightening capacity on transpacific routes, carriers are in a favorable position to raise rates aggressively.

Linerlytica forecasts that freight rates on non-U.S. routes will also rise as vessel capacity is diverted to transpacific lanes.

Carriers have already announced temporary peak season surcharges (PSS) and general rate increases (GRI) on transpacific and related trade routes, ranging from $1,000 to $2,000, effective this week. This pushes West Coast U.S. rates above $3,500 per FEU again.

Maersk has announced a PSS effective May 15, 2025, from Far East (excluding Mainland China and Hong Kong) to the U.S. and Canada:

• $1,000 for 20’ containers
• $2,000 for 40’ and 45’ containers

MSC plans to implement a PSS from June 1, 2025:

Rates for key U.S. West Coast ports such as VAN/LGB/LAX/OAK/SEA are expected to return to $6,000 per 40’ container

Surcharges: $1,600/$2,000/$2,000 for 20’/40’/40’ HC respectively

COSCO has announced a GRI effective May 15, 2025, from the Far East, Middle East, and Oceania to the entire U.S.:

• $1,600 for 20’ containers
• $2,000 for 40’ containers
• $2,532 for 45’ containers

Hapag-Lloyd will raise GRIs on routes from Asia to the West Coast and East Coast of South America, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean starting May 15; rates will apply to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from June 5:

• $500 for 20’ dry containers
• $1,000 for 40’ dry, 40’ HC, and 40’ reefer containers

Matson will raise rates starting May 22, from Shanghai, Ningbo, and Xiamen to the U.S.:

• $1,500 per 40’ container

ONE plans to implement a PSS around May 21:

• $2,000 per 40’ HC container

Despite the bullish outlook, there are some more conservative views. Judah Levine, Head of Research at digital freight platform Freightos, forecasts a freight rate increase—but not an explosion. “The rebound in volumes may mark the start of an early peak season, which will keep rates elevated. However, due to increased competition and ample carrier supply, we’re unlikely to see rates rise above $8,000 per FEU like last year.”