By 2024, operational stability in the Asia-Northern Europe, North America, and Mediterranean services had completely disappeared, with capacity volatility reaching unprecedented levels.
Sea-Intelligence, the leading provider of research and analysis, data services, and consulting to the global shipping industry, analyzed operational stability in the Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trade lanes in its latest industry update. Volatility in operational capacity, defined as the total capacity moves into and out of a trade lane and can be used as a measure of the degree of volatility and changes in carrier capacity deployment, was used for the analysis.
The data for 2025 shows a major structural shift in the shipping market, with carriers moving from stable schedules to frequent, high-intensity capacity adjustments.
The trend was most pronounced on the Asia-Northern Europe trade lane, with capacity volatility reaching 11 million TEU, up by 138% from2023 and much higher than the levels of 3-5 million TEU in the period from 2012 to 2019.
Volatility was also high on the Asia-North America and Asia-Mediterranean trade lanes. Volatility on the Asia-North America West Coast reached a record 1.4 million TEU, up by 32% from 2024.
The Asia-Mediterranean trade lane reached 6. million TEU, up by 80% from 2023 and 21% from 2024.
Volatility remained on the Asia-North America East Coast at 6.6 million TEU, but its growth was more moderate compared to the other lanes.
The data suggests the pre-pandemic stability of vessel capacity deployment has essentially disappeared.
The once predictable 'cascade buffering' effect (where capacity moves smoothly from major minor trade lanes) has been replaced by a highly dynamic system.
Today, ships frequently adjust their trade lanes in response to short-term demand fluctuations and operationalions.
The global shipping industry has recently entered a new era of structural adjustment, with vessel capacity that was previously absorbed by the major Asia-Europe trade beginning to flow into minor trade routes.
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